Dick Morris
Bush's free fall?
http://www.NewsAndOpinion.com | Just when control of Congress hangs in the balance, President George W. Bush is losing the very popularity he so desperately needs to gain control of the Senate and keep power in the House. According to the Fox News survey of October 22-24, Bush's job approval has slipped to 60% down from 66% two weeks ago and 69% in August. His personal favorability has dropped to 62% from 72% in August.
For the first time since 9-11, Bush's job approval ratings have dropped below those Bill Clinton maintained throughout his second term, even in the midst of impeachment proceedings.
Indeed, the last time a midterm election resulted in a partisan rout, in 1994, the auger of Democratic disaster was a drop in Clinton's job approval in the period immediately before the balloting.
What is causing Bush's free fall?
- Support for an invasion of Iraq has dropped from 72% to 62% in the past fourteen days. Bush and his folks are so distracted by their diplomatic dance with France and Russia that they have fallen down on the job of convincing the American people that an invasion is needed.
- Bush has been hit with a continuous six month fall in his ratings on
"managing the economy." Look at how the percent that approve of his
performance in that realm have dropped during this period:
April 30 64%
June 4 62%
July 2 55%
Sept 2 52%
Oct 22 48%
By campaigning for Republican candidates around the nation, Bush seems to be undermining the case for a military emergency requiring immediate action against Iraq. If the United States is, indeed, under a sword of Damocles, when what is the president doing campaigning and eating rubber chicken as if nothing were amiss.
For their part, the Democrats have triangulated the war with Iraq, giving the president the resolution he wanted and thereby dismissing it as a campaign issue. As a result, it has lost its political punch. Asked in the Fox News poll which issue "will be the most important in deciding your vote for Congress this fall" voters cited the economy (25%), terrorism (17%), education (14%), health care (13%), Social Security (11%), and Iraq at only 5%.
Apart from terror and Iraq, all these issues have a sharp Democratic skew. The Party could not hope for a better mix of issues as it goes into the fall elections.
To salvage his chances of victory, Bush needs to stop campaigning, stop
futzing with the U.N., and start to re-create a national sense of urgency
about Iraq and terror in general. He needs to set a deadline by which time
the US will open fire in Iraq and begin moving troops there to enforce it.
He can then tell France and Russia to come along if they wish and lapse into
irrelevance if they don't. The only good news for Bush is that his ratings
for handling terrorism are still very high - 67% -- but the issue is losing
its political salience.
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JWR contributor Dick Morris is the author of, among others, "Power Plays: Top 20 Winning and Losing Strategies of History's Great Political Leaders" Comment by clicking here.
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08/09/02: As America unites, Gore goes divisive
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07/23/02: Election 2002: Advantage Dems
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